Wilshire Phoenix Logo Web

Moore’s Law and 5G

Value of money and time
Authored by Garrette Furo & Mason Stark

In 1965, Gordon Moore of Intel Corporation (INTC), published a paper that asserted the following: the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit will double annually. This growth trajectory is what has come to be known as Moore’s Law (in 1975 Moore amended his original claim in that the doubling would take place every two years instead of one).

Since that time, we have found Moore’s Law to be reasonably accurate. The transistor counts of processors have experienced dramatic changes. For instance, a WDC 6C02 microprocessor, made in 1981, had a transistor count of 11,500, and in 1995, the SA-110 microprocessor had a transistor count of 2,500,000. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the transistor counts between the prior mentioned is 46.87%, as compared to the implied 41.4% in the later revision of Moore’s Law. Those 40%+ growth rates have continued to this day.


(1)

Additionally, advancements in digital electronics regarding memory capacity (cloud computing), microprocessor prices/availability (iPhones, distributed ledger technology), and even digital camera resolution are all tied to Moore’s Law. Also, graphic processing units (GPUs), and cellular transmission speeds (1G-5G) are all following similar paths with CAGRs of 40%+


(2)

There is also a significant relationship between Moore’s Law on business profitability and the economy through the simplification of business processes. This could become more acute, as the rollout of 5G begins to foster the development of the Internet-of-Things (IoT) phenomenon The belief is that 5G will enable, in both scale and scope, the ability for almost any electronically enabled devices to interact and communicate through the Internet. For instance, one can probably see the potential in such an application when it comes to the future of autonomous vehicle logistics.


(3)

The expansion of processing ability as described by Moore’s Law has had a direct impact upon the capacity for data transmission through cellular networks (see also, our recent piece on 5G). In our next installment, we will look to explore the implications of that growth in data distribution, and how it may impact the future value of transmission networks.

About the Authors

Garrette Furo is an early adopter of digital assets and decentralization who specializes in financial products and financial technology related to blockchain technology. Garrette has supported the public, and private sector on related matters and his clients have included mature ventures, bulge-bracket banks, and family offices. Previous to his tenure in the digital asset space, Garrette was a neurobiology researcher at Columbia University Medical School where he investigated autism and neurodevelopment related to the GI system. Garrette holds a molecular biology and alternative investments dual degree from Hampshire College and is recognized as a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA).

Mason Stark has over 25 years of experience in the hedge fund industry and capital management. Mason began his career at Granite Capital as an Equities Analyst and Trader, before leaving as the Head of Granite’s Trading in 2000 to join Ramius Capital Group (RCG). As Managing Director at RCG, Mason built the Hedged Equity group, managing more than a billion of gross invested capital at its peak. In 2010, Mason, with two other original RCG members, founded Ballast Capital, LP, and guided it through a successful seed round led by Investcorp. From Ballast, Mason went on to numerous consulting appointments, including Ambi Advisors and wealth management with The Healy Group. Mason is a graduate of Sarah Lawrence College with a B.A in Economics and International Relations, and has also obtained the Series 7, 56, 63 and 65 Licenses.

Sources:
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law
2. https://wikivisually.com/wiki/Transistor_count
3. https://mansipruthi.wordpress.com/

THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN REPRESENTS THE AUTHOR’S SUBJECTIVE BELIEF AND IS NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. THE INFORMATION AND OPINIONS PROVIDED HEREIN SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS SPECIFIC ADVICE ON THE MERITS OF ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. INVESTORS SHOULD MAKE THEIR OWN DECISIONS AND SHOULD NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN. NEITHER THE AUTHOR NOR ANY OF HIS AFFILIATES ACCEPTS ANY LIABILITY WHATSOEVER FOR ANY DIRECT OR CONSEQUENTIAL LOSS HOWSOEVER ARISING, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, FROM ANY USE OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN. THIS INFORMATION IS BASED ON DATA FOUND IN INDEPENDENT INDUSTRY PUBLICATIONS. ALTHOUGH WE BELIEVE THE DATA TO BE RELIABLE, WE HAVE NOT SOUGHT, NOR HAVE WE RECEIVED, PERMISSION FROM ANY THIRD-PARTY TO INCLUDE THEIR INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE. MANY OF THE STATEMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN REFLECT OUR SUBJECTIVE BELIEF.